The New (Permanent) Travel Ban

What’s the issue? Last week, Trump cancelled his previous executive order travel ban (which was headed to the Supreme Court) and issued a new, permanent ban. This new travel ban includes restrictions on travel from six Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad), and also includes North Korea and Venezuelan government officials. This travel ban does not affect US permanent residents or green card holders and doesn’t prematurely end valid visas already issued to nationals of the affected countries.

Why do I care? Previous iterations of this ban have been slammed by critics and suggested by Trump as being a Muslim ban, a concept that is both abhorrent and likely unconstitutional. This ban, while not substantially changed from its first two iterations, does include non-Muslim majority countries, which may be in part meant to nullify this argument. However, I wanted to step back from the debate about whether or not this ban is constitutional and examine its policy. Trump says the ban is meant to make America safer, and so I looked at whether or not restricting travel and immigration from these countries will have that effect.

The short answer is there is no evidence that restricting travel and immigration from the countries listed in the travel ban will reduce terrorism in the United States. To begin with, the threat being hurt or killed by an act of terrorism in the United States is already quite small. There have been 16 jihadist attacks and 80 plotted attacks carried out in the United States since 9/11, which have killed 89 people. Although any number is too high, it pales in comparison with the 15,000 homicide deaths in the United States per year. In fact, even if you include the 9/11 terrorist attacks, deaths from jihadist terrorism account for just 1% of the violent deaths in America.

What’s more, the attacks that lead to those 89 deaths were planned and carried out by 147 people. Of those 147 people, 125 were either US citizens or legal permanent residents. Of the remaining 23 people, only 1 (a Somali refugee who had been in the US for 2 years when he carried out a car-ramming and stabbing attack) would have been barred from entering the United States by the current travel ban. The vast majority of jihadist terrorism in the United States comes from people already in the United States who are radicalized within its borders. This means that policies like this travel ban, accompanied by Trump’s rhetoric specifically targeting Muslims, are more likely to inspire homegrown terrorism than prevent foreign national attacks.

Even if the travel ban were meant to target the very small amount of foreign jihadist terrorism aimed at the United States, the list of countries included is suspect. No American has been killed by a jihadist attack by a foreign national of any of the countries included in the ban, while other countries that are known to harbor terrorists (such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Afghanistan) are not included in the ban. Notably, no Muslim-majority countries where Trump has business ties have been included in any of his travel bans.

So, whether or not this travel ban can stand up in court, it is clear that is does not accomplish its purported goal of making America safer. What’s left, then, is a policy that hurts those impacted by the ban, encourages discrimination against Muslims, and fuels overblown fears of terrorism.

What to do if you care too:

1. Call your Representatives. Tell them that you oppose the travel ban and any similar legislation. This is not a law passed by Congress, but make it clear that this type of policy does not represent your values.
2. Donate to the ACLU. The ACLU sued the administration to halt the last two travel bans, and they have vowed to fight this one as well.
3. Be an ally to Muslims. This article shows how to educate yourself, express your support, and engage with various organizations. Here are some suggestions on how to be an ally to Muslim women specifically.
4. Teach children about discrimination against Muslims and how to be an ally. You can use this lesson plan from the Anti-Defamation League (you can donate to them too).